Golden Globes 2015 – Final predictions

On Sunday (or Monday, if you’re Australian, like me) the Oscars’s younger, hipper, drunker cousin throws its yearly blowout – the Golden Globes. A hodgepodge of Oscar sure things, critical darlings, commercial hits, the delivery of the best joke of the whole awards season, and hilarious cutaways to the audience, the Globes, while becoming equal in prestige to their counterpart these days, are still as gloriously unpredictable as they’ve always been. My predictions for the film categories (lets face it, if I did try weigh in on the TV nominations, I’d just rage about the absence of Orphan Black), including a few wild ones (because it is the Globes, after all, and otherwise, where’s the fun?), are under the cut.

PictureDrama
Boyhood, Foxcatcher, The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything, Selma

Best Motion Picture – Drama

While its Globe noms were seen as its saviour a month ago, Selmas campaign has been botched somewhat since, with screeners not getting sent out and controversy regarding its accuracy, seeing a quick, sharp drop from being a major threat to Boyhood to now a left field pick, along with box office winner The Imitation Game. Possible, given the massive critical response to the film and respect for Ava DuVernay, but crowd favourite Boyhood looks to continue its march to becoming Richard Linklater’s first Best Picture mention.

Win: Boyhood

Could win: Selma or The Imitation Game

ActressDrama
Rosamund PIke (Gone Girl), Jennifer Aniston (Cake), Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Oscar sure-thing Moore could very easily take this one (she has two nominations, they could even go for a Kate Winslet-style thing where she wins both), but something makes me feel that the celebrity-loving Globes could shock everyone and give this to late breaker Aniston, whose film also only emerged three months ago and continues to uneasily look like an Oscar contender. While Cake hasn’t garnered fantastic reviews and its box office performance is yet to be seen (it’s not out in the US until the 23rd), Aniston’s turn is a world away from anything she’s ever done before, turning a lot of heads. Pike, whose mainstream breakthrough performance in Gone Girl won a lot of passionate fans (including me), could also pull a somewhat surprise win.

WinJennifer Aniston, Cake

Could win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice; Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

ActorDrama
Steve Carrel (Foxcatcher), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), David Oyelowo (Selma).

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

While Carrel started off the year strong, attention has gradually shifted off him as Foxcatcher‘s popularity has waned to Redmayne, who plays Stephen Hawking over the course of about 40 years in The Theory of Everything, which has been remembered very well over the past few months. While he’s a lot younger than winners tend to be, he’s the top pick for the Oscar at this point in time, something that a Globe would definitely contribute to.

Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Could win: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Into the Woods, Pride, St Vincent.
Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Into the Woods, Pride, St Vincent.

Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical

I’ll be damned if Pride, given its lacklustre box office performance in the US, getting nominated was one of the most delicious surprises of this awards season. Birdman, a real crowdpleaser (look out for my review this week), the type that gets audiences cheering at the end, is the clear frontrunner here though. Possible spoilers could be The Grand Budapest Hotel, which had incredibly strong box office and has been remembered for pretty much an entire year, and Into the Woods. 

Win: Birdman

Could win: The Grand Budapest HotelInto the Woods

ActressComedy
Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Emily Blunt (Into the Woods), Helen Mirren (The Hundred Foot Journey), Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars), Quvenzhane Wallis (Annie)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical

While the Globes love Adams (6 nominations in 7 years can’t be wrong), Big Eyes has dropped significantly in popularity since the beginning of the year, leaving this category pretty much open for the taking. As I previously said, it could easily go to Moore, whose turn in Maps to the Stars got her the Best Actress prize at Cannes, but, somewhat surprisingly, I’ve seen a big groundswell towards Blunt in the past few weeks, putting her in a very good position to win.

Win: Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

Could win: Amy Adams, Big Eyes; Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars

ActorComedy
Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Michael Keaton (Birdman), Bill Murray (St Vincent), Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice), Christoph Waltz (Big Eyes)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical

While it’d be excellent to see Fiennes win, Keaton (who, at the moment, is neck-and-neck with Redmayne to win the Oscar), having a massive comeback with the art-imitating-life-somewhat film Birdman, is the frontrunner.

Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman

Could win: Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Animated
Big Hero 6, The Book of Life, The Boxtrolls, How to Train Your Dragon 2, The Lego Movie

Best Animated Feature Film

Win: The Lego Movie

Could win: Big Hero 6

Foreign
Force Majeure, Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem, Ida, Leviathan, Tangerines

Best Foreign Language Film

While it favours nominating films that do well with the mainstream (The Intouchables in 2012, Blue is the Warmest Colour in 2013, which wasn’t even eligible) or celebrities (The Flowers of War, a Chinese film starring Christian Bale, anyone?) more than the Oscars, the winner is most often in line with the Oscars. Staying in the conversation since early in the year and taking unexpectedly very strong box office, Polish film Ida is tipped to win.

Win: Ida

Could win: Force Majeure

Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman), Meryl Streep (Into the Woods).
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman), Meryl Streep (Into the Woods).

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Arquette is all but guaranteed the Oscar, but I can’t help but feel Chastain’s more showy performance, combined with her popularity (she won two years ago for Zero Dark Thirty) is slightly more up the Globes’s alley. So, I may regret it, but I’m going out on a limb and picking her.

Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Could win: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year; Emma Stone, Birdman

SupportingActor
Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Edward Norton (Birdman), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash).

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

While Whiplash underperformed at the box office, Simmons has maintained frontrunner status for months now, and doesn’t look like he’s moving any time soon.

Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Could win: Edward Norton, Birdman

Director
Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Ava DuVernay (Selma), David Fincher (Gone Girl), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Birdman), Richard Linklater (Boyhood).

Best Director – Motion Picture

The situation here is similar to that in Best Picture – DramaBoyhood is the frontrunner due to the career moment Linklater is having (at last), but DuVernay is, a rare female nominee (a sad fact), and if, despite a botched campaign, the Globes decide they want to make some history with a surprise winner, a victory for her is a possibility.

Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Could win: Ava DuVernay, Selma; Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman

Flynn and Graham Moore on The Hollywood Reporter’s writers roundtable

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Win: Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl

Could win: Alejandro G. Inarritu et al., Birdman; Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Interview with Sanchez

Best Original Score – Motion Picture

Sanchez’s drum-only score, which has gained constant attention and popularity, was recently declared ineligible for the Oscars, making it the sympathy vote of sorts here. Reznor and Ross, who are also incredibly popular, could take it though.

Win: Antonio Sanchez, Birdman

Could win: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Gone Girl

Best Original Song – Motion Picture

Win: Glory, Selma

Could win: Mercy Is, Noah

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